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UNSW vs Nepean — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

UNSW
UNSW
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nepean
Nepean
Unknown 80'
Unknown 28' (pen)
5/25/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 16The Village Green Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

UNSW59%
×Draw22%
Nepean19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNSW
1.87
Nepean
0.94

UNSW creates 99% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

UNSW
2.07
Nepean
0.67

allows per match

UNSW
1.20
Nepean
1.67

finishing

UNSW+0.00on par
Nepean+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNSW ↓

Nepean →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

UNSW or draw
81%
UNSW or Nepean
78%
Draw or Nepean
41%

Winning margin

UNSW wins by 2+
34%
Nepean wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

UNSW 1+ goals
85%
UNSW 2+ goals
56%
UNSW 3+ goals
29%
Nepean 1+ goals
61%
Nepean 2+ goals
24%
Nepean 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

UNSW (draw refunded)
76%
Nepean (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNSW at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Nepean away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNSW attack 2.07 + Nepean defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.87

Nepean attack 0.67 + UNSW defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

UNSW scores more
59%
level
22%
Nepean scores more
19%

UNSW at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "UNSW will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'
Penalty
80'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNSW vs Nepean

UNSW and Nepean drew 1-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 25, 2024.

Goals: ? (28' pen, 80').

The match was played at The Village Green Field 1 in Kensington.