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Nepean vs UNSW — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Nepean
Nepean
FT
4 – 0
UNSW
UNSW
3/19/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 1Cook Park Saint Marys

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nepean24%
×Draw21%
UNSW55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nepean
1.33
UNSW
2.10

UNSW creates 58% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Nepean
1.13
UNSW
2.13

allows per match

Nepean
2.07
UNSW
1.53

finishing

Nepean+0.00on par
UNSW+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nepean ↓

UNSW →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Nepean or draw
45%
Nepean or UNSW
79%
Draw or UNSW
76%

Winning margin

Nepean wins by 2+
10%
UNSW wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Nepean 1+ goals
74%
Nepean 2+ goals
38%
Nepean 3+ goals
15%
UNSW 1+ goals
88%
UNSW 2+ goals
62%
UNSW 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Nepean (draw refunded)
30%
UNSW (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nepean at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.07 · 15 matches

UNSW away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nepean attack 1.13 + UNSW defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

UNSW attack 2.13 + Nepean defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Nepean scores more
24%
level
21%
UNSW scores more
55%

UNSW at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "UNSW will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Nepean 4 – 0 UNSW

Nepean beat UNSW 4-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 19, 2024.

The match was played at Cook Park Saint Marys in Sydney.