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UNSW vs Bonnyrigg White Eagles — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

UNSW
UNSW
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
L. Hughes 25'
N. Krljar 63'
M. Versi 58', 48'
5/11/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 14The Village Green Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UNSW55%
×Draw22%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNSW
2.02
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.25

UNSW creates 62% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 62 away

creates per match

UNSW
2.07
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.31

allows per match

UNSW
1.20
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.98

finishing

UNSW+0.00on par
Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNSW ↓

Bonnyrigg White Eagles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

UNSW or draw
77%
UNSW or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
78%
Draw or Bonnyrigg White Eagles
45%

Winning margin

UNSW wins by 2+
32%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

UNSW 1+ goals
87%
UNSW 2+ goals
60%
UNSW 3+ goals
33%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
71%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
36%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

UNSW (draw refunded)
70%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNSW at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.98 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNSW attack 2.07 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.02

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.31 + UNSW defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

UNSW scores more
55%
level
22%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
23%

UNSW at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "UNSW will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'
L. Hughes
48'
M. Versi
58'
M. Versi
63'
N. Krljar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: UNSW 1–3 Bonnyrigg White Eagles

Bonnyrigg White Eagles beat UNSW 3-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 11, 2024.

Goals: L. Hughes (25'), M. Versi (48', 58'), N. Krljar (63').

The match was played at The Village Green Field 1 in Kensington.