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Bonnyrigg White Eagles vs UNSW — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
Bonnyrigg White Eagles
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
UNSW
UNSW
C. Mendy 63'
A. Peterson 50'
L. Hughes 90'
2/8/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 1Bonnyrigg Sports Club

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bonnyrigg White Eagles34%
×Draw23%
UNSW43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.55
UNSW
1.77

UNSW creates 14% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.57
UNSW
2.13

allows per match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles
1.42
UNSW
1.53

finishing

Bonnyrigg White Eagles+0.00on par
UNSW+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bonnyrigg White Eagles ↓

UNSW →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Bonnyrigg White Eagles or draw
57%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles or UNSW
77%
Draw or UNSW
66%

Winning margin

Bonnyrigg White Eagles wins by 2+
16%
UNSW wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Bonnyrigg White Eagles 1+ goals
79%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 2+ goals
46%
Bonnyrigg White Eagles 3+ goals
20%
UNSW 1+ goals
83%
UNSW 2+ goals
53%
UNSW 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Bonnyrigg White Eagles (draw refunded)
44%
UNSW (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bonnyrigg White Eagles at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.42 · 65 matches

UNSW away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bonnyrigg White Eagles attack 1.57 + UNSW defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.55

UNSW attack 2.13 + Bonnyrigg White Eagles defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bonnyrigg White Eagles scores more
34%
level
23%
UNSW scores more
43%

UNSW at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "UNSW will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'
A. Peterson
63'
C. Mendy
90'
L. Hughes

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bonnyrigg White Eagles vs UNSW

Bonnyrigg White Eagles beat UNSW 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on February 8, 2025.

Goals: A. Peterson (50'), C. Mendy (63'), L. Hughes (90').

The match was played at Bonnyrigg Sports Club in Sydney.