Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

UNSW vs Blacktown Spartans — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

UNSW
UNSW
FT
3 – 0
Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans
3/23/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 7The Village Green Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UNSW50%
×Draw23%
Blacktown Spartans27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNSW
1.87
Blacktown Spartans
1.32

UNSW creates 42% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 73 away

creates per match

UNSW
2.07
Blacktown Spartans
1.45

allows per match

UNSW
1.20
Blacktown Spartans
1.67

finishing

UNSW+0.00on par
Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNSW ↓

Blacktown Spartans →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

UNSW or draw
73%
UNSW or Blacktown Spartans
77%
Draw or Blacktown Spartans
50%

Winning margin

UNSW wins by 2+
28%
Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UNSW 1+ goals
85%
UNSW 2+ goals
56%
UNSW 3+ goals
29%
Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals
73%
Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals
38%
Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

UNSW (draw refunded)
65%
Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNSW at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Blacktown Spartans away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.67 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNSW attack 2.07 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.87

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.45 + UNSW defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

UNSW scores more
50%
level
23%
Blacktown Spartans scores more
27%

UNSW at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "UNSW will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: UNSW 3–0 Blacktown Spartans

UNSW beat Blacktown Spartans 3-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at The Village Green Field 1 in Kensington.