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Blacktown Spartans vs UNSW — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Blacktown Spartans
Blacktown Spartans
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
UNSW
UNSW
C. Fowler 90+1'
J. Fulton 51', 17'
T. Quilligan 34', 8'
4/4/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 9Blacktown Football Park 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Blacktown Spartans37%
×Draw22%
UNSW41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Blacktown Spartans
1.74
UNSW
1.84

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 30 away

creates per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.95
UNSW
2.13

allows per match

Blacktown Spartans
1.55
UNSW
1.53

finishing

Blacktown Spartans+0.00on par
UNSW+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blacktown Spartans ↓

UNSW →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Blacktown Spartans or draw
59%
Blacktown Spartans or UNSW
78%
Draw or UNSW
63%

Winning margin

Blacktown Spartans wins by 2+
19%
UNSW wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Blacktown Spartans 1+ goals
82%
Blacktown Spartans 2+ goals
52%
Blacktown Spartans 3+ goals
25%
UNSW 1+ goals
84%
UNSW 2+ goals
55%
UNSW 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Blacktown Spartans (draw refunded)
47%
UNSW (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blacktown Spartans at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.55 · 77 matches

UNSW away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blacktown Spartans attack 1.95 + UNSW defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.74

UNSW attack 2.13 + Blacktown Spartans defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Blacktown Spartans scores more
37%
level
22%
UNSW scores more
41%

UNSW at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UNSW will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
T. Quilligan
17'
J. Fulton
34'
T. Quilligan
51'
J. Fulton
90+1'
C. Fowler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Blacktown Spartans 0–5 UNSW

UNSW beat Blacktown Spartans 5-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on April 4, 2025.

Goals: T. Quilligan (8', 34'), J. Fulton (17', 51'), C. Fowler (90+1').

The match was played at Blacktown Football Park 1 in Sydney.