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UNSW vs Bankstown City Lions — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

UNSW
UNSW
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Bankstown City Lions
Bankstown City Lions
M. Da Silva 89'
J. Cox 73'
K. Lopes 21'
C. Payne 90+3'
R. Desilva 86'
J. Grozdanovski 68'
6/15/2024New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 20The Village Green Field 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UNSW48%
×Draw23%
Bankstown City Lions29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNSW
1.80
Bankstown City Lions
1.34

UNSW creates 34% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 57 away

creates per match

UNSW
2.07
Bankstown City Lions
1.49

allows per match

UNSW
1.20
Bankstown City Lions
1.54

finishing

UNSW+0.00on par
Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNSW ↓

Bankstown City Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

UNSW or draw
71%
UNSW or Bankstown City Lions
77%
Draw or Bankstown City Lions
52%

Winning margin

UNSW wins by 2+
26%
Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UNSW 1+ goals
83%
UNSW 2+ goals
54%
UNSW 3+ goals
27%
Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals
74%
Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals
39%
Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

UNSW (draw refunded)
63%
Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNSW at home — creates 2.07, concedes 1.20 · 30 matches

Bankstown City Lions away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.54 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNSW attack 2.07 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.80

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.49 + UNSW defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

UNSW scores more
48%
level
23%
Bankstown City Lions scores more
29%

UNSW at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "UNSW will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'
K. Lopes
68'
J. Grozdanovski
73'
J. Cox
86'
R. Desilva
89'
M. Da Silva
90+3'
C. Payne

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNSW vs Bankstown City Lions

UNSW and Bankstown City Lions drew 3-3 in New South Wales NPL 2 on June 15, 2024.

Goals: K. Lopes (21'), J. Grozdanovski (68'), J. Cox (73'), R. Desilva (86'), M. Da Silva (89'), C. Payne (90+3').

The match was played at The Village Green Field 1 in Kensington.