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Bankstown City Lions vs UNSW — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Bankstown City Lions
Bankstown City Lions
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
UNSW
UNSW
J. Morfitis 82'
S. Woods 75'
8/23/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 29Jensen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Bankstown City Lions36%
×Draw23%
UNSW41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bankstown City Lions
1.56
UNSW
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 57 home / 30 away

creates per match

Bankstown City Lions
1.60
UNSW
2.13

allows per match

Bankstown City Lions
1.25
UNSW
1.53

finishing

Bankstown City Lions+0.00on par
UNSW+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bankstown City Lions ↓

UNSW →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Bankstown City Lions or draw
59%
Bankstown City Lions or UNSW
77%
Draw or UNSW
64%

Winning margin

Bankstown City Lions wins by 2+
17%
UNSW wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Bankstown City Lions 1+ goals
79%
Bankstown City Lions 2+ goals
46%
Bankstown City Lions 3+ goals
21%
UNSW 1+ goals
82%
UNSW 2+ goals
50%
UNSW 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Bankstown City Lions (draw refunded)
46%
UNSW (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bankstown City Lions at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

UNSW away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.53 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bankstown City Lions attack 1.60 + UNSW defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.56

UNSW attack 2.13 + Bankstown City Lions defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Bankstown City Lions scores more
36%
level
23%
UNSW scores more
41%

UNSW at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "UNSW will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
S. Woods
82'
J. Morfitis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

New South Wales NPL 2: Bankstown City Lions 0–2 UNSW

UNSW beat Bankstown City Lions 2-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on August 23, 2025.

Goals: S. Woods (75'), J. Morfitis (82').

The match was played at Jensen Park in Sydney.