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University of Tasmania vs Hobart City — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

University of Tasmania
University of Tasmania
CANC
08:30
Hobart City
Hobart City
8/29/2024Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 19Sandown Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

University of Tasmania38%
×Draw19%
Hobart City43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

University of Tasmania
2.42
Hobart City
2.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 26 home / 25 away

creates per match

University of Tasmania
2.35
Hobart City
2.00

allows per match

University of Tasmania
3.12
Hobart City
2.48

finishing

University of Tasmania+0.00on par
Hobart City+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

University of Tasmania ↓

Hobart City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

University of Tasmania or draw
57%
University of Tasmania or Hobart City
81%
Draw or Hobart City
62%

Winning margin

University of Tasmania wins by 2+
22%
Hobart City wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

University of Tasmania 1+ goals
91%
University of Tasmania 2+ goals
69%
University of Tasmania 3+ goals
43%
Hobart City 1+ goals
92%
Hobart City 2+ goals
72%
Hobart City 3+ goals
46%

Draw no bet

University of Tasmania (draw refunded)
47%
Hobart City (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

University of Tasmania at home — creates 2.35, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

Hobart City away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.48 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

University of Tasmania attack 2.35 + Hobart City defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.42

Hobart City attack 2.00 + University of Tasmania defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

University of Tasmania scores more
38%
level
19%
Hobart City scores more
43%

Hobart City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hobart City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

University of Tasmania vs Hobart City — Match Preview

University of Tasmania face Hobart City on August 29, 2024 in this Tasmania Southern Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

University of Tasmania host Hobart City at Sandown Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.