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Hobart City vs University of Tasmania — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

Hobart City
Hobart City
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
University of Tasmania
University of Tasmania
3/15/2025Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 1Sandown Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Hobart City60%
×Draw16%
University of Tasmania23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hobart City
3.30
University of Tasmania
2.08

Hobart City creates 59% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

Hobart City
2.73
University of Tasmania
2.17

allows per match

Hobart City
2.00
University of Tasmania
3.88

finishing

Hobart City+0.00on par
University of Tasmania+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

84%Yes
  • Yes84
  • No16

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hobart City ↓

University of Tasmania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–13%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–15%
4–25%
4–34%
4–42%

Most likely 2–1 (6%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
60%40%

Double chance

Hobart City or draw
77%
Hobart City or University of Tasmania
84%
Draw or University of Tasmania
40%

Winning margin

Hobart City wins by 2+
42%
University of Tasmania wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hobart City 1+ goals
96%
Hobart City 2+ goals
83%
Hobart City 3+ goals
62%
University of Tasmania 1+ goals
87%
University of Tasmania 2+ goals
61%
University of Tasmania 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Hobart City (draw refunded)
72%
University of Tasmania (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
81%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hobart City at home — creates 2.73, concedes 2.00 · 26 matches

University of Tasmania away — creates 2.17, concedes 3.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hobart City attack 2.73 + University of Tasmania defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 3.30

University of Tasmania attack 2.17 + Hobart City defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Hobart City scores more
60%
level
16%
University of Tasmania scores more
23%

Hobart City at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Hobart City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hobart City vs University of Tasmania

Hobart City beat University of Tasmania 4-2 in Tasmania Southern Championship on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Sandown Park in Sandy Bay.