University of Tasmania 1–2 Glenorchy Knights U21

University of Tasmania

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Glenorchy Knights U21

5/9/2026

Tasmania Southern Championship · Round 7

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

University of Tasmania68%

×Draw14%

Glenorchy Knights U2118%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

University of TasmaniaExpected goals in this matchGlenorchy Knights U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.97

2.10

University of Tasmania

3.97

Glenorchy Knights U21

2.10

University of Tasmania creates 89% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 15 away

2.35

creates per match

1.07

3.12

allows per match

5.60

creates per match

University of Tasmania

2.35

Glenorchy Knights U21

1.07

allows per match

University of Tasmania

3.12

Glenorchy Knights U21

5.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

University of Tasmania+0.00on par

Glenorchy Knights U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over93
Under7

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes86
No14

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

University of Tasmania ↓

Glenorchy Knights U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–00%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–01%

1–12%

1–22%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–26%

4–34%

4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (6%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

98%2%2.5

93%7%3.5

84%16%4.5

69%31%

Double chance

University of Tasmania or draw

82%

University of Tasmania or Glenorchy Knights U21

86%

Draw or Glenorchy Knights U21

32%

Winning margin

University of Tasmania wins by 2+

50%

Glenorchy Knights U21 wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

University of Tasmania 1+ goals

98%

University of Tasmania 2+ goals

89%

University of Tasmania 3+ goals

73%

Glenorchy Knights U21 1+ goals

88%

Glenorchy Knights U21 2+ goals

62%

Glenorchy Knights U21 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

University of Tasmania (draw refunded)

79%

Glenorchy Knights U21 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

84%

Both score & under 3

2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

University of Tasmania at home — creates 2.35, concedes 3.12 · 26 matches

Glenorchy Knights U21 away — creates 1.07, concedes 5.60 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

University of Tasmania attack 2.35 + Glenorchy Knights U21 defence 5.60 → ÷2 → 3.97

Glenorchy Knights U21 attack 1.07 + University of Tasmania defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

University of Tasmania scores more

68%

level

14%

Glenorchy Knights U21 scores more

18%

University of Tasmania at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "University of Tasmania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff