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Glenorchy Knights U21 vs University of Tasmania — Tasmania Southern Championship 2026

Glenorchy Knights U21
Glenorchy Knights U21
FT
2 – 13
HT: 1 – 6
University of Tasmania
University of Tasmania
8/9/2024Tasmania Southern ChampionshipTasmania Southern Championship · Round 18KGV Football Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Glenorchy Knights U2136%
×Draw17%
University of Tasmania46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Glenorchy Knights U21
2.96
University of Tasmania
3.32

University of Tasmania creates 12% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 24 away

creates per match

Glenorchy Knights U21
2.05
University of Tasmania
2.17

allows per match

Glenorchy Knights U21
4.47
University of Tasmania
3.88

finishing

Glenorchy Knights U21+0.00on par
University of Tasmania+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

91%Yes
  • Yes91
  • No9

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Glenorchy Knights U21 ↓

University of Tasmania →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–35%
3–44%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–24%
4–34%
4–43%

Most likely 2–2 (5%) · grid covers 68% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
94%6%3.5
86%14%4.5
73%27%

Double chance

Glenorchy Knights U21 or draw
54%
Glenorchy Knights U21 or University of Tasmania
83%
Draw or University of Tasmania
64%

Winning margin

Glenorchy Knights U21 wins by 2+
21%
University of Tasmania wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Glenorchy Knights U21 1+ goals
95%
Glenorchy Knights U21 2+ goals
79%
Glenorchy Knights U21 3+ goals
55%
University of Tasmania 1+ goals
96%
University of Tasmania 2+ goals
84%
University of Tasmania 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Glenorchy Knights U21 (draw refunded)
44%
University of Tasmania (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
89%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Glenorchy Knights U21 at home — creates 2.05, concedes 4.47 · 19 matches

University of Tasmania away — creates 2.17, concedes 3.88 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Glenorchy Knights U21 attack 2.05 + University of Tasmania defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 2.96

University of Tasmania attack 2.17 + Glenorchy Knights U21 defence 4.47 → ÷2 → 3.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Glenorchy Knights U21 scores more
36%
level
17%
University of Tasmania scores more
46%

University of Tasmania at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "University of Tasmania will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Glenorchy Knights U21 vs University of Tasmania

University of Tasmania beat Glenorchy Knights U21 13-2 in Tasmania Southern Championship on August 9, 2024.

The match was played at KGV Football Park in Hobart.