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University of Pretoria vs Richards Bay — Premier Soccer League 2018

University of Pretoria
University of Pretoria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Richards Bay
Richards Bay
K. Pheeane 48'
K. Pheeane 39' (OG)
6/15/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Playoffs - 1Tuks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

University of Pretoria45%
×Draw35%
Richards Bay20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

University of Pretoria
0.98
Richards Bay
0.56

University of Pretoria creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 63 away

creates per match

University of Pretoria
0.75
Richards Bay
0.62

allows per match

University of Pretoria
0.50
Richards Bay
1.22

finishing

University of Pretoria+0.00on par
Richards Bay+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Under
  • Under80
  • Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

University of Pretoria ↓

Richards Bay →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–021%
0–112%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
79%21%1.5
46%54%2.5
20%80%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

University of Pretoria or draw
80%
University of Pretoria or Richards Bay
65%
Draw or Richards Bay
55%

Winning margin

University of Pretoria wins by 2+
17%
Richards Bay wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

University of Pretoria 1+ goals
62%
University of Pretoria 2+ goals
26%
University of Pretoria 3+ goals
8%
Richards Bay 1+ goals
43%
Richards Bay 2+ goals
11%
Richards Bay 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

University of Pretoria (draw refunded)
69%
Richards Bay (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

University of Pretoria at home — creates 0.75, concedes 0.50 · 4 matches

Richards Bay away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.22 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

University of Pretoria attack 0.75 + Richards Bay defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.98

Richards Bay attack 0.62 + University of Pretoria defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

University of Pretoria scores more
45%
level
35%
Richards Bay scores more
20%

University of Pretoria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "University of Pretoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'
K. PheeaneOwn goal
41'
Singnkhi Mpedi
46'
A. Mvambi← D. Abrahams
48'
K. Pheeane↳ T. Mohlamonyane
55'
T. Gumede← S. Ntsundwana
65'
S. Langa← P. Mkhuma
68'
B. Komane← M. Mthembu
83'
Yanela Mbuthuma
84'
A. Tonisi← T. Mohlamonyane
90+6'
Singnkhi Mpedi
90'
Thabang Sibanyoni
90+6'
Singnkhi Mpedi
90+2'
J. Figuareido← N. Makhubela

Statistics

UniversityRichards
Discipline
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0

Premier Soccer League: University of Pretoria 1–1 Richards Bay

University of Pretoria and Richards Bay drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on June 15, 2024.

Goals: K. Pheeane (39' o.g., 48').

The match was played at Tuks Stadium in Tshwane.