Richards Bay 2–1 University of Pretoria

Richards Bay

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

University of Pretoria

V. Mngomezulu 55'

S. Ntsundwana 32'

L. Phewa 52'

12/4/2021

League #289 · Round 15King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Richards Bay48%

×Draw23%

University of Pretoria29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Richards BayExpected goals in this matchUniversity of Pretoria

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.39

Richards Bay

1.85

University of Pretoria

1.39

Richards Bay creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 11 away

2.33

creates per match

1.45

1.33

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Richards Bay

2.33

University of Pretoria

1.45

allows per match

Richards Bay

1.33

University of Pretoria

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Richards Bay+0.00on par

University of Pretoria+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Richards Bay ↓

University of Pretoria →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Richards Bay or draw

71%

Richards Bay or University of Pretoria

77%

Draw or University of Pretoria

52%

Winning margin

Richards Bay wins by 2+

27%

University of Pretoria wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Richards Bay 1+ goals

84%

Richards Bay 2+ goals

55%

Richards Bay 3+ goals

28%

University of Pretoria 1+ goals

75%

University of Pretoria 2+ goals

40%

University of Pretoria 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Richards Bay (draw refunded)

62%

University of Pretoria (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Richards Bay at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

University of Pretoria away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Richards Bay attack 2.33 + University of Pretoria defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.85

University of Pretoria attack 1.45 + Richards Bay defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Richards Bay scores more

48%

level

23%

University of Pretoria scores more

29%

Richards Bay at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Richards Bay will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

S. Ntsundwana

52'

L. Phewa

55'

V. Mngomezulu

65'

S. Mbatha← T. Mohlamonyane

70'

S. Meveni← S. Hlongwa

75'

T. Mokwena← S. Mbonde

86'

M. Mathebula← S. Mthethwa

Richards

University

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: S. Dladla

70'▲S. Meveni←▼S. Hlongwa

86'▲M. Mathebula←▼S. Mthethwa

Richards Bay substitutes

MeveniMathebulaDyaniNgwenyaMabuyaVilaneNdlelaZwaneBakah

Manager: T. Motaung

65'▲S. Mbatha←▼T. Mohlamonyane

75'▲T. Mokwena←▼S. Mbonde

University of Pretoria substitutes

MbathaMokwenaColaAllenMontueliMothaChokoeSelotolaNzuza

Match Recap: Richards Bay vs University of Pretoria

Richards Bay beat University of Pretoria 2-1 in League #289 on December 4, 2021.

Goals: S. Ntsundwana (32'), L. Phewa (52'), V. Mngomezulu (55').

The match was played at King Goodwill Zwelithini Stadium in Durban, KN.

Richards Bay vs University of Pretoria — League #289 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Richards Bay vs University of Pretoria