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Universitatea Craiova vs Unirea Slobozia — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Unirea Slobozia
Unirea Slobozia
9/30/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 11Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Universitatea Craiova55%
×Draw25%
Unirea Slobozia20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.61
Unirea Slobozia
0.87

Universitatea Craiova creates 85% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 41 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Unirea Slobozia
0.93

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
Unirea Slobozia
1.59

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Unirea Slobozia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
80%
Universitatea Craiova or Unirea Slobozia
75%
Draw or Unirea Slobozia
45%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
29%
Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
80%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
48%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
22%
Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals
58%
Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals
22%
Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
73%
Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Unirea Slobozia away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.59 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

Unirea Slobozia attack 0.93 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
55%
level
25%
Unirea Slobozia scores more
20%

Universitatea Craiova at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Craiova vs Unirea Slobozia

Universitatea Craiova beat Unirea Slobozia 3-0 in Liga I on September 30, 2024.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.