Unirea Slobozia 0–3 Universitatea Craiova

Unirea Slobozia

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Universitatea Craiova

2/22/2026

Liga I · Round 28May 1 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Unirea Slobozia30%

×Draw27%

Universitatea Craiova43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Unirea SloboziaExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.36

Unirea Slobozia

1.08

Universitatea Craiova

1.36

Universitatea Craiova creates 26% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 155 away

1.05

creates per match

1.38

1.34

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.05

Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

Unirea Slobozia

1.34

Universitatea Craiova

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Unirea Slobozia+0.00on par

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Unirea Slobozia ↓

Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Unirea Slobozia or draw

57%

Unirea Slobozia or Universitatea Craiova

73%

Draw or Universitatea Craiova

70%

Winning margin

Unirea Slobozia wins by 2+

12%

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Unirea Slobozia 1+ goals

66%

Unirea Slobozia 2+ goals

29%

Unirea Slobozia 3+ goals

10%

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

74%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

39%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Unirea Slobozia (draw refunded)

41%

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Unirea Slobozia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Unirea Slobozia attack 1.05 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Unirea Slobozia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Unirea Slobozia scores more

30%

level

27%

Universitatea Craiova scores more

43%

Universitatea Craiova at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff