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Universitatea Craiova vs SCM Gloria Buzău — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
SCM Gloria Buzău
SCM Gloria Buzău
8/16/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 6Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Universitatea Craiova63%
×Draw21%
SCM Gloria Buzău15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.94
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.83

Universitatea Craiova creates 134% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 21 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
SCM Gloria Buzău
0.86

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
SCM Gloria Buzău
2.24

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
SCM Gloria Buzău+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

SCM Gloria Buzău →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
85%
Universitatea Craiova or SCM Gloria Buzău
79%
Draw or SCM Gloria Buzău
37%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
38%
SCM Gloria Buzău wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
86%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
58%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
30%
SCM Gloria Buzău 1+ goals
56%
SCM Gloria Buzău 2+ goals
20%
SCM Gloria Buzău 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
80%
SCM Gloria Buzău (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

SCM Gloria Buzău away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.94

SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.86 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
63%
level
21%
SCM Gloria Buzău scores more
15%

Universitatea Craiova at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Universitatea Craiova 5–1 SCM Gloria Buzău

Universitatea Craiova beat SCM Gloria Buzău 5-1 in Liga I on August 16, 2024.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.