SCM Gloria Buzău vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 20+ matches
SCM Gloria Buzău25%
Universitatea Craiova46%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Universitatea Craiova creates 47% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 155 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under64
- Over36
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No59
- Yes41
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
SCM Gloria Buzău ↓
Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
SCM Gloria Buzău at home — creates 0.60, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches
Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
SCM Gloria Buzău attack 0.60 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.86
Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + SCM Gloria Buzău defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.26
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 46%?"
Universitatea Craiova at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 46% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
CFR 1907 Cluj
FCSBUniversitatea Craiova
FC Astra Giurgiu
Viitorul Constanta
Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe
FC Botosani
Politehnica Iasi
Dinamo Bucuresti
AFC Hermannstadt
GAZ Metan Medias
Dunarea Calarasi
FC Voluntari
ConcordiaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
SCM Gloria Buzău host Universitatea Craiova on Saturday, 21 December 2024 at 17:30. The match is part of the Liga I 2018/2019 season.
Liga I: SCM Gloria Buzău 0–2 Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova beat SCM Gloria Buzău 2-0 in Liga I on December 21, 2024.
The match was played at Stadionul Gloria in Buzău.