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Universitatea Craiova vs Politehnica Iasi — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
2/2/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 24Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Universitatea Craiova57%
×Draw24%
Politehnica Iasi19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.65
Politehnica Iasi
0.84

Universitatea Craiova creates 96% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 100 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Politehnica Iasi
0.87

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
Politehnica Iasi
1.67

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Politehnica Iasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
81%
Universitatea Craiova or Politehnica Iasi
76%
Draw or Politehnica Iasi
43%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
31%
Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
81%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
49%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
23%
Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
57%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
21%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
75%
Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.65

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
57%
level
24%
Politehnica Iasi scores more
19%

Universitatea Craiova at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Universitatea Craiova 4–1 Politehnica Iasi

Universitatea Craiova beat Politehnica Iasi 4-1 in Liga I on February 2, 2025.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.