Politehnica Iasi 1–4 Universitatea Craiova

Politehnica Iasi

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 0

Universitatea Craiova

8/12/2023

Liga I · Round 5Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Politehnica Iasi31%

×Draw27%

Universitatea Craiova42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Politehnica IasiExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.34

Politehnica Iasi

1.12

Universitatea Craiova

1.34

Universitatea Craiova creates 20% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 155 away

1.11

creates per match

1.38

1.30

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.11

Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.30

Universitatea Craiova

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw

58%

Politehnica Iasi or Universitatea Craiova

73%

Draw or Universitatea Craiova

69%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+

12%

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals

67%

Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals

31%

Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals

10%

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

74%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

39%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)

43%

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.12

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more

31%

level

27%

Universitatea Craiova scores more

42%

Universitatea Craiova at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff