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Universitatea Craiova vs Oţelul — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
Preview
17:00
Oţelul
Oţelul
12/19/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 20Stadionul Ion Oblemenco
Big match
47%
Universitatea Craiova
model favours
47%27%26%

Universitatea Craiova are unbeaten in 10 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
59%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Universitatea Craiova47%
×Draw27%
Oţelul26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.38
Oţelul
0.96

Universitatea Craiova creates 44% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 58 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Oţelul
1.10

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
Oţelul
1.14

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Oţelul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
74%
Universitatea Craiova or Oţelul
73%
Draw or Oţelul
53%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
22%
Oţelul wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
75%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
40%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
16%
Oţelul 1+ goals
62%
Oţelul 2+ goals
25%
Oţelul 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
64%
Oţelul (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Oţelul away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Oţelul defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Oţelul attack 1.10 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
47%
level
27%
Oţelul scores more
26%

Universitatea Craiova at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Oţelul score first in only 14% of matches
  • Oţelul are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • 71% of Oţelul’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 71% of Oţelul’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Craiova
WDWWD
Oţelul
WDWWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Universitatea Craiova host Oţelul

December 19, 2026: Universitatea Craiova take on Oţelul in Liga I. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Universitatea Craiova host Oţelul at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.