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Universitatea Craiova vs Oţelul — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Oţelul
Oţelul
1/11/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Universitatea Craiova23%
×Draw32%
Oţelul45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
0.67
Oţelul
1.08

Oţelul creates 61% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 3 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.00
Oţelul
0.67

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.50
Oţelul
0.33

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Oţelul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–119%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
52%48%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
55%
Universitatea Craiova or Oţelul
68%
Draw or Oţelul
77%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
6%
Oţelul wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
49%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
15%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
3%
Oţelul 1+ goals
66%
Oţelul 2+ goals
29%
Oţelul 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
33%
Oţelul (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 12 matches

Oţelul away — creates 0.67, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.00 + Oţelul defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.67

Oţelul attack 0.67 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
23%
level
32%
Oţelul scores more
45%

Oţelul at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Universitatea Craiova 1–2 Oţelul

Oţelul beat Universitatea Craiova 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 11, 2025.