Oţelul 1–0 Universitatea Craiova: Result & Stats

Oţelul

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Universitatea Craiova

9/20/2025

Liga I · Round 10Stadionul Otelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Oţelul35%

×Draw28%

Universitatea Craiova37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

OţelulExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Craiova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.21

Oţelul

1.15

Universitatea Craiova

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 155 away

1.18

creates per match

1.38

1.05

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Oţelul

1.18

Universitatea Craiova

1.38

allows per match

Oţelul

1.05

Universitatea Craiova

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Oţelul+0.00on par

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

Universitatea Craiova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw

63%

Oţelul or Universitatea Craiova

72%

Draw or Universitatea Craiova

65%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+

14%

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals

68%

Oţelul 2+ goals

32%

Oţelul 3+ goals

11%

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

70%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

34%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)

48%

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.18 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Oţelul defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Oţelul scores more

35%

level

28%

Universitatea Craiova scores more

37%

Universitatea Craiova at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff