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Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Botosani
FC Botosani
10/20/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 13Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 156+ matches

Universitatea Craiova51%
×Draw26%
FC Botosani23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.52
FC Botosani
0.92

Universitatea Craiova creates 65% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 157 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
FC Botosani
1.02

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
FC Botosani
1.41

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
FC Botosani+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

FC Botosani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
77%
Universitatea Craiova or FC Botosani
74%
Draw or FC Botosani
49%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
26%
FC Botosani wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
78%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
45%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
20%
FC Botosani 1+ goals
60%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
23%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
69%
FC Botosani (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.41 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + FC Botosani defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

FC Botosani attack 1.02 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
51%
level
26%
FC Botosani scores more
23%

Universitatea Craiova at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Craiova vs FC Botosani

Universitatea Craiova and FC Botosani drew 0-0 in Liga I on October 20, 2024.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.