Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

FC Botosani vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2018

FC Botosani
FC Botosani
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
2/18/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 26Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 155+ matches

FC Botosani36%
×Draw28%
Universitatea Craiova36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Botosani
1.21
Universitatea Craiova
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 156 home / 155 away

creates per match

FC Botosani
1.30
Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

FC Botosani
1.03
Universitatea Craiova
1.12

finishing

FC Botosani+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw
64%
FC Botosani or Universitatea Craiova
72%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
64%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+
15%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals
70%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
34%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
12%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
70%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
34%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)
50%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 156 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.30 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + FC Botosani defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

FC Botosani scores more
36%
level
28%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
36%

FC Botosani at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "FC Botosani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Botosani vs Universitatea Craiova

FC Botosani and Universitatea Craiova drew 2-2 in Liga I on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Botoşani.