Universitatea Craiova 3–0 Chindia Targoviste

Universitatea Craiova

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Chindia Targoviste

B. Mitrea 65'

J. Marković 29'

A. Crețu 22'

12/17/2022

Liga I · Round 21Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Universitatea Craiova50%

×Draw28%

Chindia Targoviste22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchChindia Targoviste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.80

Universitatea Craiova

1.37

Chindia Targoviste

0.80

Universitatea Craiova creates 71% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 76 away

1.63

creates per match

0.78

0.81

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova

1.63

Chindia Targoviste

0.78

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova

0.81

Chindia Targoviste

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Chindia Targoviste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw

78%

Universitatea Craiova or Chindia Targoviste

72%

Draw or Chindia Targoviste

50%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

24%

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

75%

Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

40%

Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

16%

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals

55%

Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals

19%

Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

70%

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Chindia Targoviste attack 0.78 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more

50%

level

28%

Chindia Targoviste scores more

22%

Universitatea Craiova at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

15'

22'

28'

29'

J. Marković↳ A. Crețu

32'

36'

44'

46'

46'

D. Dumitrașcu← R. Akhmatov

54'

P. Papp← S. Hanca

60'

Vladimir Screciu

65'

B. Mitrea↳ A. Ivan

69'

A. Roguljić← A. Crețu

69'

M. Danciu← G. Cîmpanu

69'

J. Passaglia← M. Vorobjovas

75'

A. Jipa← D. Popadiuc

76'

Rivaldinho← J. Marković

76'

D. Sala← A. Mateiu

89'

C. Atănase← G. Cooper

Possession

Shots

Statistics

UniversitateaChindia

Overview

72%Possession28%

11Total Shots9

4Corners3

14Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots9

6On Target3

4Off Target2

1Blocked4

Passing

72%Possession28%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls8

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

3Offsides2

Liga I: Universitatea Craiova 3–0 Chindia Targoviste

Universitatea Craiova beat Chindia Targoviste 3-0 in Liga I on December 17, 2022.

Goals: A. Crețu (22'), J. Marković (29'), B. Mitrea (65').

Universitatea Craiova controlled possession (72%) and registered 11 shots to 9.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.

Universitatea Craiova vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga I 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Liga I: Universitatea Craiova 3–0 Chindia Targoviste