CS Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Chindia Targoviste

CS Universitatea Craiova

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chindia Targoviste

Gustavo Vagenin 28'

2/25/2022

Liga I · Round 28Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

CS Universitatea Craiova50%

×Draw28%

Chindia Targoviste22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CS Universitatea CraiovaExpected goals in this matchChindia Targoviste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

0.80

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.37

Chindia Targoviste

0.80

CS Universitatea Craiova creates 71% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 76 away

1.63

creates per match

0.78

0.81

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

1.63

Chindia Targoviste

0.78

allows per match

CS Universitatea Craiova

0.81

Chindia Targoviste

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CS Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CS Universitatea Craiova ↓

Chindia Targoviste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

CS Universitatea Craiova or draw

78%

CS Universitatea Craiova or Chindia Targoviste

72%

Draw or Chindia Targoviste

50%

Winning margin

CS Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+

24%

Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

CS Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals

75%

CS Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals

40%

CS Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals

16%

Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals

55%

Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals

19%

Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

CS Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)

70%

Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CS Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CS Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.37

Chindia Targoviste attack 0.78 + CS Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CS Universitatea Craiova scores more

50%

level

28%

Chindia Targoviste scores more

22%

CS Universitatea Craiova at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CS Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

Gustavo Vagenin↳ J. Marković

43'

46'

51'

59'

59'

62'

68'

68'

A. Roguljić← A. Mateiu

72'

A. Șerban← C. Atănase

76'

O. Bic← Gustavo Vagenin

76'

A. Conté← B. Vătăjelu

89'

M. Cantave← J. Passaglia

Shots

Statistics

CSChindia

Overview

8Total Shots9

3Corners4

17Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots9

1On Target4

7Off Target5

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

17Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2