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Universitatea Craiova vs Arges Pitesti — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
3/1/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 28Complex Sportiv Craiova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Universitatea Craiova52%
×Draw27%
Arges Pitesti21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.47
Arges Pitesti
0.83

Universitatea Craiova creates 77% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 80 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
Arges Pitesti
0.86

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
Arges Pitesti
1.31

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
Arges Pitesti+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

Arges Pitesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
79%
Universitatea Craiova or Arges Pitesti
73%
Draw or Arges Pitesti
48%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
26%
Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
77%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
43%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
18%
Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
56%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
20%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
71%
Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.31 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Arges Pitesti attack 0.86 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
52%
level
27%
Arges Pitesti scores more
21%

Universitatea Craiova at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Universitatea Craiova 1–0 Arges Pitesti

Universitatea Craiova beat Arges Pitesti 1-0 in Liga I on March 1, 2023.

The match was played at Complex Sportiv Craiova in Craiova.