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Arges Pitesti vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2018

Arges Pitesti
Arges Pitesti
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
11/21/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 17Stadionul Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Arges Pitesti32%
×Draw28%
Universitatea Craiova40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arges Pitesti
1.08
Universitatea Craiova
1.25

Universitatea Craiova creates 16% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 155 away

creates per match

Arges Pitesti
1.05
Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

Arges Pitesti
1.11
Universitatea Craiova
1.12

finishing

Arges Pitesti+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw
60%
Arges Pitesti or Universitatea Craiova
72%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
68%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+
12%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals
66%
Arges Pitesti 2+ goals
29%
Arges Pitesti 3+ goals
10%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
71%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
36%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)
44%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.11 · 80 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.05 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.08

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more
32%
level
28%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
40%

Universitatea Craiova at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Arges Pitesti 1–2 Universitatea Craiova

Universitatea Craiova beat Arges Pitesti 2-1 in Liga I on November 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Nicolae Dobrin in Pitesti.