Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Universitatea Craiova vs AFC Hermannstadt — Liga I 2018

Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
8/10/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 5Stadionul Ion Oblemenco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Universitatea Craiova53%
×Draw26%
AFC Hermannstadt21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Craiova
1.52
AFC Hermannstadt
0.85

Universitatea Craiova creates 79% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 138 away

creates per match

Universitatea Craiova
1.63
AFC Hermannstadt
0.90

allows per match

Universitatea Craiova
0.81
AFC Hermannstadt
1.42

finishing

Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par
AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Craiova ↓

AFC Hermannstadt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Universitatea Craiova or draw
79%
Universitatea Craiova or AFC Hermannstadt
74%
Draw or AFC Hermannstadt
47%

Winning margin

Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
27%
AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
78%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
45%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
20%
AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
57%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
21%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
72%
AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Craiova at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.81 · 156 matches

AFC Hermannstadt away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.42 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.63 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

AFC Hermannstadt attack 0.90 + Universitatea Craiova defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Universitatea Craiova scores more
53%
level
26%
AFC Hermannstadt scores more
21%

Universitatea Craiova at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Universitatea Craiova 1–0 AFC Hermannstadt

Universitatea Craiova beat AFC Hermannstadt 1-0 in Liga I on August 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco in Craiova.