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AFC Hermannstadt vs Universitatea Craiova — Liga I 2018

AFC Hermannstadt
AFC Hermannstadt
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Universitatea Craiova
Universitatea Craiova
12/10/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 19Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

AFC Hermannstadt35%
×Draw28%
Universitatea Craiova38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AFC Hermannstadt
1.16
Universitatea Craiova
1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 155 away

creates per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.20
Universitatea Craiova
1.38

allows per match

AFC Hermannstadt
1.06
Universitatea Craiova
1.12

finishing

AFC Hermannstadt+0.00on par
Universitatea Craiova+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Hermannstadt ↓

Universitatea Craiova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

AFC Hermannstadt or draw
62%
AFC Hermannstadt or Universitatea Craiova
72%
Draw or Universitatea Craiova
65%

Winning margin

AFC Hermannstadt wins by 2+
14%
Universitatea Craiova wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AFC Hermannstadt 1+ goals
69%
AFC Hermannstadt 2+ goals
32%
AFC Hermannstadt 3+ goals
11%
Universitatea Craiova 1+ goals
70%
Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
34%
Universitatea Craiova 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AFC Hermannstadt (draw refunded)
48%
Universitatea Craiova (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Hermannstadt at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 137 matches

Universitatea Craiova away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Hermannstadt attack 1.20 + Universitatea Craiova defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Universitatea Craiova attack 1.38 + AFC Hermannstadt defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AFC Hermannstadt scores more
35%
level
28%
Universitatea Craiova scores more
38%

Universitatea Craiova at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Universitatea Craiova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: AFC Hermannstadt 2–1 Universitatea Craiova

AFC Hermannstadt beat Universitatea Craiova 2-1 in Liga I on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Sibiu.