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Universitatea Cluj vs Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele — Liga II 2018

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
CANC
08:00
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
5/23/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 37

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Universitatea Cluj47%
×Draw25%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
1.60
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.18

Universitatea Cluj creates 36% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 21 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.83
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.52

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
0.83
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.38

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
72%
Universitatea Cluj or Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
75%
Draw or Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
53%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
24%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
80%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
47%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
22%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1+ goals
69%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 2+ goals
33%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
63%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.38 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.60

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele attack 1.52 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
47%
level
25%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele scores more
28%

Universitatea Cluj at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Universitatea Cluj face Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (Liga II)

Liga II returns with Universitatea Cluj hosting Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele. Match starts May 23, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.