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Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele vs Universitatea Cluj — Liga II 2018

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
11/17/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 18Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele36%
×Draw27%
Universitatea Cluj37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.25
Universitatea Cluj
1.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 58 away

creates per match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
1.52
Universitatea Cluj
1.59

allows per match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele
0.95
Universitatea Cluj
0.97

finishing

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele+0.00on par
Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele ↓

Universitatea Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele or draw
63%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele or Universitatea Cluj
73%
Draw or Universitatea Cluj
64%

Winning margin

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele wins by 2+
16%
Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1+ goals
71%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 2+ goals
36%
Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 3+ goals
13%
Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
72%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
36%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele (draw refunded)
49%
Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.95 · 21 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele attack 1.52 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.25

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.59 + Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele scores more
36%
level
27%
Universitatea Cluj scores more
37%

Universitatea Cluj at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele 1–1 Universitatea Cluj

Turris-Oltul T. Măgurele and Universitatea Cluj drew 1-1 in Liga II on November 17, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Turnu Măgurele.