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Universitatea Cluj vs Oţelul — Liga I 2026

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Oţelul
Oţelul
2/27/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 29Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Universitatea Cluj41%
×Draw28%
Oţelul31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
1.27
Oţelul
1.05

Universitatea Cluj creates 21% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 58 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.41
Oţelul
1.10

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.00
Oţelul
1.14

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Oţelul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
69%
Universitatea Cluj or Oţelul
72%
Draw or Oţelul
59%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
19%
Oţelul wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
72%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
36%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
14%
Oţelul 1+ goals
65%
Oţelul 2+ goals
28%
Oţelul 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
57%
Oţelul (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.00 · 80 matches

Oţelul away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.41 + Oţelul defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.27

Oţelul attack 1.10 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
41%
level
28%
Oţelul scores more
31%

Universitatea Cluj at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Universitatea Cluj 4–0 Oţelul

Universitatea Cluj beat Oţelul 4-0 in Liga I on February 27, 2026.

The match was played at Cluj Arena in Cluj-Napoca.