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Oţelul vs Universitatea Cluj — Liga I 2026

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
10/25/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 14Stadionul Otelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Oţelul45%
×Draw23%
Universitatea Cluj32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
1.77
Universitatea Cluj
1.48

Oţelul creates 20% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Oţelul
2.12
Universitatea Cluj
1.65

allows per match

Oţelul
1.30
Universitatea Cluj
1.41

finishing

Oţelul-0.52scores less
Universitatea Cluj+0.25scores more

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

Universitatea Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
68%
Oţelul or Universitatea Cluj
77%
Draw or Universitatea Cluj
55%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
24%
Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
83%
Oţelul 2+ goals
53%
Oţelul 3+ goals
26%
Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
77%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
43%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
58%
Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.30 · 5 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 2.12 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.77

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.65 + Oţelul defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Oţelul scores more
45%
level
23%
Universitatea Cluj scores more
32%

Oţelul at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Oţelul 1–2 Universitatea Cluj

Universitatea Cluj beat Oţelul 2-1 in Liga I on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Otelul in Galati.