Universitatea Cluj 3–0 FC Clinceni: Result & Stats

Universitatea Cluj

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

FC Clinceni

11/11/2018

Liga II · Round 16Cluj Arena (Cluj-Napoca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Universitatea Cluj37%

×Draw26%

FC Clinceni36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchFC Clinceni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.28

Universitatea Cluj

1.31

FC Clinceni

1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 19 away

1.83

creates per match

1.74

0.83

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.83

FC Clinceni

1.74

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

0.83

FC Clinceni

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

FC Clinceni+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

FC Clinceni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

64%

Universitatea Cluj or FC Clinceni

74%

Draw or FC Clinceni

63%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

17%

FC Clinceni wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

73%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

38%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

14%

FC Clinceni 1+ goals

72%

FC Clinceni 2+ goals

37%

FC Clinceni 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

51%

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

FC Clinceni away — creates 1.74, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + FC Clinceni defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC Clinceni attack 1.74 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

37%

level

26%

FC Clinceni scores more

36%

Universitatea Cluj at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff