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FC Clinceni vs Universitatea Cluj — Liga II 2018

FC Clinceni
FC Clinceni
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
5/16/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 35Stadionul Clinceni - Arena 1 (Clinceni)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Clinceni52%
×Draw25%
Universitatea Cluj24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Clinceni
1.65
Universitatea Cluj
1.03

FC Clinceni creates 60% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 58 away

creates per match

FC Clinceni
2.32
Universitatea Cluj
1.59

allows per match

FC Clinceni
0.47
Universitatea Cluj
0.97

finishing

FC Clinceni+0.00on par
Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Clinceni ↓

Universitatea Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Clinceni or draw
76%
FC Clinceni or Universitatea Cluj
75%
Draw or Universitatea Cluj
48%

Winning margin

FC Clinceni wins by 2+
28%
Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

FC Clinceni 1+ goals
81%
FC Clinceni 2+ goals
49%
FC Clinceni 3+ goals
23%
Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
64%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
28%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FC Clinceni (draw refunded)
69%
Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Clinceni at home — creates 2.32, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Clinceni attack 2.32 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.65

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.59 + FC Clinceni defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

FC Clinceni scores more
52%
level
25%
Universitatea Cluj scores more
24%

FC Clinceni at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "FC Clinceni will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga II: FC Clinceni 0–0 Universitatea Cluj

FC Clinceni and Universitatea Cluj drew 0-0 in Liga II on May 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Clinceni - Arena 1 (Clinceni).