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Universitatea Cluj vs Farul Constanta — Liga I 2026

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
M. Drammeh 49'
A. Aliev 44'
I. Doicaru 54'
7/19/2026Liga ILiga I · Round 1Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Universitatea Cluj48%
×Draw24%
Farul Constanta28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
1.64
Farul Constanta
1.20

Universitatea Cluj creates 37% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.32
Farul Constanta
1.40

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.00
Farul Constanta
1.95

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.13scores more
Farul Constanta-0.20scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Farul Constanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
72%
Universitatea Cluj or Farul Constanta
76%
Draw or Farul Constanta
52%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
25%
Farul Constanta wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
81%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
49%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
23%
Farul Constanta 1+ goals
70%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
34%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
63%
Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.95 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.32 + Farul Constanta defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.64

Farul Constanta attack 1.40 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
48%
level
24%
Farul Constanta scores more
28%

Universitatea Cluj at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
A. AlievGoal Disallowed - Foul
24'
N. Michail← S. Lefter
24'
A. Chintes← J. Stanojev
44'
A. Aliev↳ D. Nistor
44'
R. Munteanu
46'
Gustavo Marins← V. Ticu
46'
N. Grigoryan← E. Sylvestre
46'
R. Tanasa← I. Vina
49'
M. Drammeh↳ A. Aliev
54'
I. Doicaru↳ T. Njike
55'
O. Mendy← M. Stefanescu
56'
A. Chintes
56'
T. Njike
63'
F. Poulolo← D. Codrea
64'
N. Grigoryan
77'
E. Radaslavescu← M. Ahlinvi
82'
C. Sima← I. Doicaru

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Universitatea Cluj 2–1 Farul Constanta

Universitatea Cluj beat Farul Constanta 2-1 in Liga I on July 19, 2026.

Goals: A. Aliev (44'), M. Drammeh (49'), I. Doicaru (54').

The match was played at Cluj Arena in Cluj-Napoca.