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Farul Constanta vs Universitatea Cluj — Liga I 2026

Farul Constanta
Farul Constanta
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
8/18/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 6Central Stadium Hagi Academy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Farul Constanta34%
×Draw24%
Universitatea Cluj42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanta
1.46
Universitatea Cluj
1.65

Universitatea Cluj creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 10 away

creates per match

Farul Constanta
1.51
Universitatea Cluj
1.65

allows per match

Farul Constanta
1.65
Universitatea Cluj
1.41

finishing

Farul Constanta+0.24scores more
Universitatea Cluj+0.25scores more

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanta ↓

Universitatea Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Farul Constanta or draw
58%
Farul Constanta or Universitatea Cluj
76%
Draw or Universitatea Cluj
66%

Winning margin

Farul Constanta wins by 2+
16%
Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Farul Constanta 1+ goals
77%
Farul Constanta 2+ goals
43%
Farul Constanta 3+ goals
18%
Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
81%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
49%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)
45%
Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanta at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.65 · 8 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanta attack 1.51 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.65 + Farul Constanta defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Farul Constanta scores more
34%
level
24%
Universitatea Cluj scores more
42%

Universitatea Cluj at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farul Constanta vs Universitatea Cluj

Universitatea Cluj beat Farul Constanta 1-0 in Liga I on August 18, 2025.

The match was played at Central Stadium Hagi Academy in Ovidiu.