Universitatea Cluj 1–0 Farul Constanta

Universitatea Cluj

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Farul Constanta

2/28/2024

Liga I · Round 28Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Universitatea Cluj43%

×Draw24%

Farul Constanta32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.35

Universitatea Cluj

1.59

Farul Constanta

1.35

Universitatea Cluj creates 18% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 8 away

1.17

creates per match

1.61

1.09

allows per match

2.01

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.17

Farul Constanta

1.61

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.09

Farul Constanta

2.01

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

-0.36scores less than expected

finishing

Universitatea Cluj-0.31scores less

Farul Constanta-0.36scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

68%

Universitatea Cluj or Farul Constanta

76%

Draw or Farul Constanta

57%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

22%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

80%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

47%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

21%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

74%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

39%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

57%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.09 · 7 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 1.61, concedes 2.01 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.17 + Farul Constanta defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.59

Farul Constanta attack 1.61 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

43%

level

24%

Farul Constanta scores more

32%

Universitatea Cluj at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff