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Universitatea Cluj vs Csikszereda — Liga II 2018

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
CANC
08:00
Csikszereda
Csikszereda
4/4/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 28Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Universitatea Cluj47%
×Draw27%
Csikszereda26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
1.45
Csikszereda
1.00

Universitatea Cluj creates 45% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 81 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.74
Csikszereda
1.11

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
0.89
Csikszereda
1.16

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
Csikszereda+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Csikszereda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
74%
Universitatea Cluj or Csikszereda
73%
Draw or Csikszereda
53%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
23%
Csikszereda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
77%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
42%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
18%
Csikszereda 1+ goals
63%
Csikszereda 2+ goals
26%
Csikszereda 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
65%
Csikszereda (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.74, concedes 0.89 · 46 matches

Csikszereda away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.74 + Csikszereda defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.45

Csikszereda attack 1.11 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
47%
level
27%
Csikszereda scores more
26%

Universitatea Cluj at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Universitatea Cluj host Csikszereda

April 4, 2020: Universitatea Cluj take on Csikszereda in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Universitatea Cluj host Csikszereda at Cluj Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.