Universitatea Cluj 3–1 Arges Pitesti

Universitatea Cluj

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Arges Pitesti

I. Macalou 84', 12'

J. Stanojev 64'

R. Sierra 66'

2/3/2026

Liga I · Round 25Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Universitatea Cluj43%

×Draw28%

Arges Pitesti29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchArges Pitesti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.00

Universitatea Cluj

1.29

Arges Pitesti

1.00

Universitatea Cluj creates 29% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 13 away

1.36

creates per match

0.94

1.07

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.36

Arges Pitesti

0.94

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.07

Arges Pitesti

1.22

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

+0.06on par

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.12scores more

Arges Pitesti+0.06on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Arges Pitesti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

71%

Universitatea Cluj or Arges Pitesti

72%

Draw or Arges Pitesti

57%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

20%

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

72%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

37%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

14%

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

63%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

26%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

60%

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.07 · 23 matches

Arges Pitesti away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.22 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.36 + Arges Pitesti defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Arges Pitesti attack 0.94 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

43%

level

28%

Arges Pitesti scores more

29%

Universitatea Cluj at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

I. Macalou

Universitatea Cluj · M

8.5

Match Events

12'

I. Macalou↳ D. Nistor

17'

A. Bettaieb← X. Emmers

22'

Vadim Rață

46'

J. Blagaic← T. Seto

46'

C. Micovschi← D. Oancea

58'

A. Chipciu← M. Silva

59'

D. Codrea← D. Nistor

59'

J. Stanojev← A. Trica

64'

J. Stanojev↳ O. Mendy

66'

75'

75'

79'

84'

I. Macalou↳ M. Drammeh

86'

R. Moldoveanu←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitateaArges

Overview

42%Possession58%

11Total Shots12

1.31Expected Goals (xG)1.13

2Corners6

10Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots12

6On Target3

2Off Target5

3Blocked4

5Inside Box7

6Outside Box5

Passing

42%Possession58%

324Total Passes435

254Accurate Passes365

78%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1