Arges Pitesti 1–0 Universitatea Cluj

Arges Pitesti

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universitatea Cluj

A. Bettaieb 66'

9/20/2025

Liga I · Round 10Stadionul Nicolae Dobrin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Arges Pitesti37%

×Draw28%

Universitatea Cluj35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arges PitestiExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.16

Arges Pitesti

1.20

Universitatea Cluj

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 25 away

1.07

creates per match

1.40

0.92

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Arges Pitesti

1.07

Universitatea Cluj

1.40

allows per match

Arges Pitesti

0.92

Universitatea Cluj

1.33

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Arges Pitesti-0.32scores less

Universitatea Cluj+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arges Pitesti ↓

Universitatea Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Arges Pitesti or draw

65%

Arges Pitesti or Universitatea Cluj

72%

Draw or Universitatea Cluj

63%

Winning margin

Arges Pitesti wins by 2+

16%

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Arges Pitesti 1+ goals

70%

Arges Pitesti 2+ goals

34%

Arges Pitesti 3+ goals

12%

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

69%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

32%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arges Pitesti (draw refunded)

51%

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arges Pitesti at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.33 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arges Pitesti attack 1.07 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.20

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.40 + Arges Pitesti defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arges Pitesti scores more

37%

level

28%

Universitatea Cluj scores more

35%

Arges Pitesti at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Arges Pitesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Bettaieb

Arges Pitesti · F

7.9

Match Events

36'

Marius Briceag

42'

Dorinel Oancea

45+5'

Dan NistorPenalty cancelled

52'

57'

58'

58'

66'

A. Bettaieb↳ I. Radescu

70'

L. Cristea← E. Capradossi

70'

D. Codrea← G. B. Simion

70'

I. Macalou← V. Postolachi

73'

V. Rata← I. Radescu

73'

Y. Pirvu← Caio Ferreira

79'

79'

82'

82'

84'

E. Orozco← A. Bettaieb

85'

Florin Borța

85'

T. Seto← J. Blagaic

90+7'

David Lazar

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ArgesUniversitatea

Overview

31%Possession69%

11Total Shots19

1.73Expected Goals (xG)1.25

6Corners17

8Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots19

4On Target3

3Off Target7

4Blocked9

9Inside Box10

2Outside Box9

Passing

31%Possession69%

199Total Passes446

147Accurate Passes374

74%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls8

5Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards1

6Offsides0