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Universitatea Cluj vs Aerostar Bacau — Liga II 2018

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
9/10/2018Liga IILiga II · Round 6Cluj Arena (Cluj-Napoca)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Universitatea Cluj63%
×Draw21%
Aerostar Bacau16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
2.03
Aerostar Bacau
0.90

Universitatea Cluj creates 126% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 31 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.83
Aerostar Bacau
0.97

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
0.83
Aerostar Bacau
2.23

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par
Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

Aerostar Bacau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
84%
Universitatea Cluj or Aerostar Bacau
79%
Draw or Aerostar Bacau
37%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
39%
Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
87%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
60%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
33%
Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
59%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
23%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
80%
Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.83 · 58 matches

Aerostar Bacau away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.23 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.83 + Aerostar Bacau defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.03

Aerostar Bacau attack 0.97 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
63%
level
21%
Aerostar Bacau scores more
16%

Universitatea Cluj at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Universitatea Cluj vs Aerostar Bacau

Universitatea Cluj beat Aerostar Bacau 3-2 in Liga II on September 10, 2018.

The match was played at Cluj Arena (Cluj-Napoca).