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Aerostar Bacau vs Universitatea Cluj — Liga II 2018

Aerostar Bacau
Aerostar Bacau
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
3/16/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 25Stadionul Aerostar (Bacău)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aerostar Bacau31%
×Draw24%
Universitatea Cluj45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aerostar Bacau
1.31
Universitatea Cluj
1.63

Universitatea Cluj creates 24% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 58 away

creates per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
Universitatea Cluj
1.59

allows per match

Aerostar Bacau
1.66
Universitatea Cluj
0.97

finishing

Aerostar Bacau+0.00on par
Universitatea Cluj+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aerostar Bacau ↓

Universitatea Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aerostar Bacau or draw
55%
Aerostar Bacau or Universitatea Cluj
76%
Draw or Universitatea Cluj
69%

Winning margin

Aerostar Bacau wins by 2+
13%
Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Aerostar Bacau 1+ goals
73%
Aerostar Bacau 2+ goals
38%
Aerostar Bacau 3+ goals
14%
Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
80%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
48%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Aerostar Bacau (draw refunded)
41%
Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aerostar Bacau at home — creates 1.66, concedes 1.66 · 32 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.97 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aerostar Bacau attack 1.66 + Universitatea Cluj defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.31

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.59 + Aerostar Bacau defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Aerostar Bacau scores more
31%
level
24%
Universitatea Cluj scores more
45%

Universitatea Cluj at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aerostar Bacau vs Universitatea Cluj

Universitatea Cluj beat Aerostar Bacau 2-1 in Liga II on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Aerostar (Bacău).