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Universitatea Alexandria W vs Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
FT
0 – 2
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
3/23/2024Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 3Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Universitatea Alexandria W42%
×Draw21%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Alexandria W
2.06
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 44 home / 39 away

creates per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
2.75
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.92

allows per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
1.93
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.36

finishing

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Alexandria W ↓

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Universitatea Alexandria W or draw
63%
Universitatea Alexandria W or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
79%
Draw or Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
58%

Winning margin

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
24%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
87%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
61%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
34%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 1+ goals
85%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 2+ goals
57%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
53%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Alexandria W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.75 + Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 2.06

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W attack 1.92 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
42%
level
21%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W scores more
37%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Universitatea Alexandria W 0 – 2 Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W beat Universitatea Alexandria W 2-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on March 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Turnu Măgurele.