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Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W vs Universitatea Alexandria W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
FT
3 – 0
Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
4/21/2024Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Relegation Round - 6Baza Sportivă Gloria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W63%
×Draw16%
Universitatea Alexandria W21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
3.33
Universitatea Alexandria W
1.94

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W creates 72% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 45 away

creates per match

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
3.67
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.69

allows per match

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W
1.18
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.98

finishing

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W+0.00on par
Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Total goals

89%Over
  • Over89
  • Under11

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

82%Yes
  • Yes82
  • No18

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W ↓

Universitatea Alexandria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
97%3%2.5
89%11%3.5
76%24%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W or draw
79%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W or Universitatea Alexandria W
84%
Draw or Universitatea Alexandria W
37%

Winning margin

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W wins by 2+
44%
Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 1+ goals
96%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 2+ goals
84%
Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3+ goals
63%
Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
86%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
58%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W (draw refunded)
75%
Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W at home — creates 3.67, concedes 1.18 · 39 matches

Universitatea Alexandria W away — creates 2.69, concedes 2.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W attack 3.67 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 3.33

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.69 + Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W scores more
63%
level
16%
Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
21%

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W 3 – 0 Universitatea Alexandria W

Gloria Bistrița-Năsăud W beat Universitatea Alexandria W 3-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Baza Sportivă Gloria in Bistrița.