Universitatea Alexandria W 0–5 Farul Constanţa W

Universitatea Alexandria W

FT

0 – 5

Farul Constanţa W

8/27/2023

Liga 1 Feminin · Round 1Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Universitatea Alexandria W27%

×Draw19%

Farul Constanţa W53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea Alexandria WExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanţa W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

2.50

Universitatea Alexandria W

1.77

Farul Constanţa W

2.50

Farul Constanţa W creates 41% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 39 away

2.75

creates per match

3.08

1.93

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Universitatea Alexandria W

2.75

Farul Constanţa W

3.08

allows per match

Universitatea Alexandria W

1.93

Farul Constanţa W

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Farul Constanţa W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Alexandria W ↓

Farul Constanţa W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–14%

0–24%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–28%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–44%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Universitatea Alexandria W or draw

47%

Universitatea Alexandria W or Farul Constanţa W

81%

Draw or Farul Constanţa W

73%

Winning margin

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+

13%

Farul Constanţa W wins by 2+

34%

Team goals

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals

83%

Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals

53%

Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals

26%

Farul Constanţa W 1+ goals

92%

Farul Constanţa W 2+ goals

71%

Farul Constanţa W 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)

34%

Farul Constanţa W (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Alexandria W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

Farul Constanţa W away — creates 3.08, concedes 0.79 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.75 + Farul Constanţa W defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.77

Farul Constanţa W attack 3.08 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more

27%

level

19%

Farul Constanţa W scores more

53%

Farul Constanţa W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Farul Constanţa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff