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Farul Constanţa W vs Universitatea Alexandria W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Farul Constanţa W
Farul Constanţa W
FT
5 – 0
Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
11/4/2023Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 8Complex Academia Gheorghe Hagi teren 2 sintetic

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Farul Constanţa W66%
×Draw16%
Universitatea Alexandria W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farul Constanţa W
3.15
Universitatea Alexandria W
1.64

Farul Constanţa W creates 92% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 45 away

creates per match

Farul Constanţa W
3.31
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.69

allows per match

Farul Constanţa W
0.59
Universitatea Alexandria W
2.98

finishing

Farul Constanţa W+0.00on par
Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farul Constanţa W ↓

Universitatea Alexandria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
50%50%

Double chance

Farul Constanţa W or draw
82%
Farul Constanţa W or Universitatea Alexandria W
84%
Draw or Universitatea Alexandria W
34%

Winning margin

Farul Constanţa W wins by 2+
47%
Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Farul Constanţa W 1+ goals
96%
Farul Constanţa W 2+ goals
81%
Farul Constanţa W 3+ goals
59%
Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
81%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
49%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Farul Constanţa W (draw refunded)
79%
Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farul Constanţa W at home — creates 3.31, concedes 0.59 · 39 matches

Universitatea Alexandria W away — creates 2.69, concedes 2.98 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farul Constanţa W attack 3.31 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 3.15

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.69 + Farul Constanţa W defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Farul Constanţa W scores more
66%
level
16%
Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
18%

Farul Constanţa W at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Farul Constanţa W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Farul Constanţa W vs Universitatea Alexandria W

Farul Constanţa W beat Universitatea Alexandria W 5-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Complex Academia Gheorghe Hagi teren 2 sintetic in Ovidiu.