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Universitatea Alexandria W vs Fairplay Bucureşti W — Liga 1 Feminin 2020

Universitatea Alexandria W
Universitatea Alexandria W
FT
3 – 0
Fairplay Bucureşti W
Fairplay Bucureşti W
12/4/2022Liga 1 FemininLiga 1 Feminin · Round 11Stadionul Comunal Plosca

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Universitatea Alexandria W67%
×Draw15%
Fairplay Bucureşti W18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Alexandria W
3.31
Fairplay Bucureşti W
1.71

Universitatea Alexandria W creates 94% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 32 away

creates per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
2.75
Fairplay Bucureşti W
1.50

allows per match

Universitatea Alexandria W
1.93
Fairplay Bucureşti W
3.88

finishing

Universitatea Alexandria W+0.00on par
Fairplay Bucureşti W+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Alexandria W ↓

Fairplay Bucureşti W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–23%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–16%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Universitatea Alexandria W or draw
82%
Universitatea Alexandria W or Fairplay Bucureşti W
85%
Draw or Fairplay Bucureşti W
33%

Winning margin

Universitatea Alexandria W wins by 2+
48%
Fairplay Bucureşti W wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Universitatea Alexandria W 1+ goals
96%
Universitatea Alexandria W 2+ goals
83%
Universitatea Alexandria W 3+ goals
62%
Fairplay Bucureşti W 1+ goals
82%
Fairplay Bucureşti W 2+ goals
51%
Fairplay Bucureşti W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Alexandria W (draw refunded)
79%
Fairplay Bucureşti W (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Alexandria W at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

Fairplay Bucureşti W away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.88 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Alexandria W attack 2.75 + Fairplay Bucureşti W defence 3.88 → ÷2 → 3.31

Fairplay Bucureşti W attack 1.50 + Universitatea Alexandria W defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Universitatea Alexandria W scores more
67%
level
15%
Fairplay Bucureşti W scores more
18%

Universitatea Alexandria W at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Universitatea Alexandria W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga 1 Feminin: Universitatea Alexandria W 3–0 Fairplay Bucureşti W

Universitatea Alexandria W beat Fairplay Bucureşti W 3-0 in Liga 1 Feminin on December 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadionul Comunal Plosca in Plosca.